New observations have dramatically reduced the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032, lowering the risk to minimal levels, but its extraordinarily close approach will offer astronomers th

New calculations indicate that the asteroid known as 2024 YR4 is now much less likely to hit Earth than earlier measurements had suggested. Late on 19 February, telescope observations of the object revised down the estimated chance of impact in 2032 from 3.1% — the greatest such threat ever recorded — to a still-worrying 1.5%.

YR4 has a 2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032. Astronomers are tracking it to refine estimates of its size and orbit to see how much of a risk the space rock poses.